Where and When to Expect Tropical Trouble in the Months Ahead...

All is quiet in the tropics as we are in the very beginning of the 2008 Hurricane Season. As you might be aware from last weekend, we already had our first Tropical Storm named Arthur which affected the Yucatan region near the country of Belize. Our look out now would be for the next tropical storm which would be named Bertha when it forms. But, I am happy to say that the tropics are looking good and I do not see anything in the near future in the latest model data that is coming in. By the way, you can click on all the graphics for a bigger look.

So my topic for this evening is "Where and When to Expect Tropical Trouble in the months ahead..." Lets start out with June, its still early and things are just warming up in the tropics so we don't expect much. Infact its every other year we typically see a tropical storm form in the month of June. And since we just had Arthur last weekend at the first of June, that might be a wake up call signaling an above average season has begun. Climatology in the tropics show we typically see tropic trouble in the Gulf and extreme Western Caribbean for the month of June. Its not unheard of to see something outside of the shaded region highlighted, but on average this is where we usually look for tropical systems to possibly develop.

As we head into July, we expand this look out region a little further into the Caribbean and the region around the Bahamas. This is because winds are becoming more favorable in these areas and the water is slowly warming up further into the Atlantic. On average we might see one or two tropical storms form and sometimes one of them could reach hurricane status especially by late July. But July is still consider a slow month in the terms of tropical development on average.

Now lets look at August and this is when things really start heating up in the Hurricane Season. If I had to choose the two big months for tropical trouble, they would be August and September. Infact, do you remember Hurricane Andrew that happened in 1992 and slammed into South Florida and later into Southern Louisiana. Hurricane Andrew first formed just north of Puerto Rico and moved across the Bahamas in late August. So August is the month we start looking for the big storms to form and its usually a busy time in the tropics. The look out region stretches deeper into the East Atlantic near the Cape Verde Islands off the coast of Africa.

September is the busiest month for tropic trouble. The peak of hurricane season is September 10th if we look at the long term average for the past 100 years. Basically the whole Atlantic Basin is open for tropical development. From the coast of Africa to the U.S. we watch out for storms to form. This is also known as the Cape Verde Season because the systems that roll off the coast of Africa near these islands is an area where these big storms start to form and move across the entire Atlantic gaining steam and power as they make their way into the Caribbean or up the Eastern Seaboard. Now we really pay attention on the track of these storms because if they come through the Caribbean, then they have a chance to slip into the Gulf. This is when things get rough for folks along the Gulf Coast because once a storm is the in the Gulf, theres no way out for these storms and someone along the Gulf is going to be affected. If you remember back in 2005, Hurricane Katrina and Rita both formed near the Bahamas and slipped through the Florida Keys into the Gulf and later blasted the Louisiana Coast.

After we get through the busy month of September, the tropics begin to slow down into October. The area of concern shrinks back to the West into the Caribbean, Gulf, and the Eastern Seaboard. Usually by the end of October, we really see the tropics settling down. We can still see some big storms during this month but the upper level winds begin to become unfavorable and harsh for tropical systems. Also the Jet Stream across the U.S. helps steer most of the storms off to the East and recurve them out to open sea.

November is the end of the Hurricane Season and usually very quiet. The season is wrapping up and the conditions are becoming harder for tropical systems to form. We can still see storms develop in the Western Caribbean up towards the island of Bermuda. Its unlikely that any storms will affect the U.S. coastline on average and most storms are blown off into the Atlantic towards the East.


Here is the list of names for the 2008 Hurricane Season. Remember when a tropical system becomes a tropical storm (winds over 39 mph), then its given a name. When a tropical storm reaches winds over 74 mph, then its given the hurricane status. These names are rotated every 6 years by the Hurricane Center. When there is a very big and bad hurricane that causes alot of damage or loss of life, those names are retired and will never be used again.

Do you have friends or family that live in Hurricane Alley, within 100 miles of the U.S. coastline? Are they prepare for the upcoming busy Hurricane Season? With gas prices very high, do you think less people will be able to evacuate from the danger areas if a storm threatens the Texas Coast? I would like to hear from you and your comments...

Have a great Weekend and stay cool!

Mike Griffin
NBC 6 WeatherPlus Meteorologist