A Little Relief in the Forecast Late Monday...

Howdy Yall,

Great weather news to share with you this Sunday evening. I see some relief from the hot and dry weather in the way of some rain and thunderstorms moving in late Monday afternoon into Monday night. I am tracking a cool front in the Panhandle this evening and looking at the latest model data coming in, it looks promising to make its way close to Central Texas Monday night. This would mean a decent chance of seeing showers and thunderstorms and from the latest upper level support and dynamics, we could see a few strong and severe storms. I don't think Tornadoes will be a threat but strong gusty winds and some hail is possible. I see a MCS to form with these Panhandle storms and work their way to the Southeast towards Central Texas. MCS mean Meso Convective System or bascially a fancy name for a line of strong to severe storms organized into a small scaled front. The leading edge of the MCS usually producings strong gusty winds and alot of lightning along with some heavy rainfall.

This is a look at the Futuretrac computer model for 5 pm Monday afternoon. This is why I am excited to tell you about the rain chances. Its been about 3 weeks since we have seen some decent rainfall around our area. That line of storms forming on the dopplernet picture above will move into our Northwestern counties by late Monday afternoon. I think the Waco, Temple, and Killeen area can expect the storms to move in about 7 to 9 pm Monday evening.

And looking at the upper level energy and the jet stream winds, I am thinking we have a slight risk for the entire area for some strong and severe storms Monday afternoon into Monday night. I see decent shear levels and some strong convergence at the leading edge of these storms with good inflow of Gulf moisture thanks to the low level jet that will be kicking in later tonight. Low level jet will be about 40-50 knots feeding into this system along with the upper level winds pushing this complex southeastward. This risk area will stretch all the way up to the Great Lakes region.

Also with the nature of the slow moving storms and heavy downpours, we could see some good rainfall. I am estimating about half inch to up to one inch of rain possible. This is great news because we rarely see a cool front make its way all the way down to Central Texas this time of year. But this front will wash out and move back northward on Tuesday. So that means not much relief from the heat as in the way of cooler temperatures or drier air. The heat and humidity stays with us through out the week.

Lets Keep our fingers crossed for some good rain because after this shot, it looks hot and dry for the rest of the week thanks to high pressure building back in...

Be sure to check my accurate forecast on NBC 6 News at 10 pm later on this evening...

Mike Griffin
NBC 6 WeatherPlus Meteorologist